Over the weekend, Christmas shoppers hit the stores and online shopping sites to take advantage of Black Friday deals. During Week 13 of the NFL season, about a quarter of the league's owners started to look ahead to Black Monday.
Believe it or not, the date that features the majority of NFL head coach firings is just four weeks away. It appears unlikely for now that there will be any further midseason changes, but several head coaches are at risk of losing their jobs the day after the season ends.
This year's Black Friday could be particularly ugly. Two coaches who have been to the Super Bowl - Ron Rivera and Dan Quinn - could lose their jobs. And the only seats hotter than Jason Garrett's after the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving loss to Buffalo were the turkeys in ovens.
But the NFL owners who go shopping for a new head coach in early January could find themselves with few attractive options. What most within the league are saying is that it's going to be tough to find seven to eight qualified replacements. Since 2010, there have been 66 coaching hires, dwindling the pool of accomplished assistants, and early success has been hard to come by in recent years for new hires. If you count the Washington Redskins, who fired Jay Gruden after five games this year and replaced him with Bill Callahan, nine of the 10 teams with the worst records in the NFL entering this week have coaches who were hired this year or last year.
Let's take a look at the coaches who are at risk of losing their jobs at season's end, ranked in order from the hottest to the most likely to survive. (Note: This doesn't include Callahan, who is unlikely to be retained by Redskins owner Daniel Snyder.)
1. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars: Two years ago, the Jaguars won 10 games and went to the AFC championship game, taking advantage of the league's easiest schedule. Last year they had eight Pro Bowlers on defense but went 5-11. This year they are a disaster at 4-8, and were blown away at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, 28-11.
Tom Coughlin paid $22 million a year to Nick Foles with the hopes he would get the Jaguars back in the playoffs. Instead, he's 0-4 and got benched Sunday at halftime. Marrone figures to go, but it's not out of the question that Coughlin could also be replaced as the team's personnel decision-maker.
2. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
2. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys: Owner Jerry Jones had already called out the coaching staff, even before an 11-point loss to the Bills on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys' best playoff hope is to win the NFC East, but that clearly won't be enough to save Garrett's job - he'll need to win a postseason game or two to get a contract extension.
The Cowboys have a league-high 15 players who have been to the Pro Bowl. This team is too talented to be 6-6 overall and 0-5 against teams with winning records.
3. Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
3. Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons: Owner Arthur Blank stood by Quinn a couple of weeks ago, and Atlanta came out of its bye with two nice wins. But the Thanksgiving loss to the Saints officially eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs at 3-9. Despite investing two first-round picks and a combined $11.5 million a year on the offensive line, the Falcons gave up nine sacks to the Saints and were dominated at the line of scrimmage.
Since the Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots, the Falcons are 20-24. Changes are coming.
4. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
4. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers: Owner David Tepper said two weeks ago he won't accept long-term mediocrity. He says he has trouble sleeping after losses and ends up being in a bad mood the next day.
Imagine his mood after Sunday's 29-21 loss to the 3-9 Redskins. At 5-7, the Panthers are all but eliminated from the playoffs. Since Tepper bought the team for $2.25 billion, the Panthers are 13-16 and face a critical decision of whether to keep an oft-injured Cam Newton. Rivera will have a hard time keeping his job.
5. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions
5. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions: The Thanksgiving loss to the Chicago Bears continued the Lions' trend under Patricia of losing close games in the fourth quarter. They have seven one-possession losses this season.
Maybe it's unfair to fire a coach after two seasons when he's missing Matthew Stafford at quarterback in the season half of this season. But Patricia is 9-18-1 since getting the job.
6. Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
6. Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns: Sunday's showdown with Pittsburgh was essentially an elimination game for the final wild-card spot. Even though the Steelers were down to their third-string quarterback (Devlin Hodges) and didn't have halfback James Connor and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Browns lost, 20-13.
Cleveland got out to a 10-0 lead, but the mistakes and penalties that have haunted the team all year resumed. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who survived a potential thumb injury, had two turnovers and was sacked five times. Kitchens has struggled mightily in his one season on the job.
7. Pat Shurmur, New York Giants
7. Pat Shurmur, New York Giants: Shurmur understands the situation. The Giants have lost eight straight after dropping a 31-10 dud to the Green Bay Packers, and he's 7-21 after 28 games. Ben McAdoo was fired after 28 games, and his record was 13-15, including a playoff berth.
"I'm a realist when it comes to that and I get it," Shurmur said. "And you know what, when you don't win, I expect what is written and ... I expect fans to be upset because we are, too. But we go about trying to fix it."
8. Adam Gase, New York Jets
8. Adam Gase, New York Jets: Yes, ownership said that Gase will be back next year, but things can change, and Sunday's 22-6 loss to a previously winless Cincinnati Bengals team doesn't look good on Gase's already-flawed Jets resume. They are the first team in NFL history to lose to two teams who started the season at 0-7, having already lost to the Miami Dolphins.
The recent three-game winning streak probably is going to save Gase's job, but losses like Sunday's make life uneasy.
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